carl carlson
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Post by carl carlson on Oct 19, 2024 10:59:49 GMT -5
he’s in project 2025 now
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Mr. Dingle Foot
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Post by Mr. Dingle Foot on Oct 19, 2024 11:04:54 GMT -5
Is that where democrats pretend they can win Texas, again?
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Percussionist Foster Grant
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32" inseam??
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Post by Percussionist Foster Grant on Oct 19, 2024 11:15:44 GMT -5
Saw him on TV earlier this week. The good news is Andy Beshear now outranks him in awkwardness.
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meatballmaniac
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sexual camel
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Post by meatballmaniac on Oct 19, 2024 11:19:56 GMT -5
Is Beto that annoying guy from SNL who won’t stop talking about punk?
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johnny two cool
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Post by johnny two cool on Oct 19, 2024 11:20:46 GMT -5
Is that where democrats pretend they can win Texas, again? You wont be mocking us when we do |
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Remain Sedate
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real rocker
Sitting here like a loaded gun, I'm waiting to go off. I've got nothing to do but shoot my mouth off
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Post by Remain Sedate on Oct 19, 2024 17:26:50 GMT -5
Place your bets! On Polymarket, one of the top online "prediction" exchanges, people have already spent over $1.2 billion betting on the US presidential election. (That includes two mystery individuals betting millions on a Trump win.) www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/election-betting-odds-trump-harris-polymarket-b2629870.htmlRelated, Harris is placing ads on DraftKings, a sports betting company, and Yahoo Sports, NBC News reports. Her campaign is now the first to advertise on DraftKings, the outlet added. She will also place ads on video game sites IGN and Fandom. I remember being in Mexico during the 1996 election and thinking it was so unusual to be able to bet on Clinton vs Dole. |
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Ass Dan
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lacks jaynaysaykwa
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Post by Ass Dan on Oct 19, 2024 18:09:35 GMT -5
scootish teens!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2024 18:10:00 GMT -5
Who knows how large the demographic pool is but the right has been trying to cater towards gamers, incels, MMA/Manosphere communities into pipelines into reactionary shit for a while.
Seeing Trump on these shows is wild.
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Aaron
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Post by Aaron on Oct 19, 2024 18:19:43 GMT -5
Polymarket is weird. Americans can’t even bet on the election (though I’m sure there are workarounds for that), so it’s mostly being juiced by people outside of the US.
Harris apparently had her best day of polling that she’s had in a couple weeks, early vote is through the roof, but if it’s a state like GA that doesn’t have partisan registration, it’s hard to know if it follows historical trends favoring Dems or not. And if Republicans are voting en masse with the EV, which isn’t their norm, is it a sign of overwhelming enthusiasm or will they see ED deficits?
2022 was so far off with polling, but it was a midterm, 2020 was off as well, but in weird ways that showed Biden performing much higher than the final margins. 2016, don’t really need to say anything.
Worst election ever because everyone knows everything and no one knows anything.
Oh and Republicans are already sounding alarm bells that Dominion machines are flipping votes in Georgia. So take from that what you will.
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Post by 𝖒𝖊𝖔𝖜𝖋𝖚𝖓𝖈𝖙𝖎𝖔𝖓 on Oct 19, 2024 18:22:15 GMT -5
As a native Missourian and a deep lover of the state despite all its hard-rocking bullshit, that’s actually a little surprising but also not surprising because Missouri is deeply regressive. I'm in a college town (Springfield) will you be at the last martyaloka show next week |
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Post by MY OWN PRIVATE IDAHO on Oct 19, 2024 18:47:33 GMT -5
I'm in a college town (Springfield) will you be at the last martyaloka show next week That's the one at Lindberg's tavern right? I have COVID right now, but, if I'm feeling up to snuff/symptom free I'll see if I can make but most likely I'm going to be missing it. |
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Remain Sedate
Turgid Member
real rocker
Sitting here like a loaded gun, I'm waiting to go off. I've got nothing to do but shoot my mouth off
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Post by Remain Sedate on Oct 20, 2024 12:00:39 GMT -5
Hope you're feeling better Idaho. I had it a month ago and it fucked me.
Motherfucker Elon is paying Pennsylvanians $1 million every day until Election Day to a random registered voter who signs a petition circulated by his super PAC “in favor of free speech and the right to bear arms.” Also, “If you’re a registered Pennsylvania voter, you & whoever referred you will now get $100 for signing our petition in support of free speech & right to bear arms,” Musk wrote.
Fuck this guy. Yet another reason to leave Twitter.
Rick Hasen (a law professor at the University of California) pointed to a federal law, 52 U.S.C. 10307(c), which says that any individual who “pays or offers to pay or accepts payment either for registration to vote or for voting shall be fined not more than $10,000 or imprisoned not more than five years, or both.”
Hasen told NBC News on Sunday that Musk’s PAC is only offering the payments to registered voters, not the general public at large, which is what could make the scheme illegal.
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Percussionist Foster Grant
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Post by Percussionist Foster Grant on Oct 20, 2024 12:15:36 GMT -5
It's like... actual election interference. Textbook definition. This is a guy Trump actively meets and strategizes with, holds Twitter space chats with, accepts massive donations from monthly. No, he isn't part of the formal campaign, but he's about as close to it as somebody gets without being on the payroll.
It's just the GOP flagrantly doing what they claim democrats do... yet again. At this point I feel like his followers have to know they're stepping all over the laws and the Constitution to do this stuff, but it doesn't matter to them because the ultimate goals of Christian nationalism's worth cracking a few eggs. Edgy Thomas Jefferson "blood tree liberty" quote blah blah blah...
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Aaron
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Post by Aaron on Oct 20, 2024 12:38:02 GMT -5
I’m steadily shifting into the “he’s going to win” mindset
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Percussionist Foster Grant
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Post by Percussionist Foster Grant on Oct 20, 2024 12:49:16 GMT -5
There's still no reason to think it's breaking in favor of anybody. If anything Harris' picked up speed in this past week while Trump's made nothing but headlines for bizarre rallies/statements.
I've tempered my expectations but yeah, I'm still not ready for a 2nd term from this dude. The biggest issue, for me personally, is how emboldened his loser base will be if he wins fair and square, but goes without saying that the largest scary issue is his foreign policy/immigration/abortion stances. And, you know, the revenge tour.
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Aaron
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Post by Aaron on Oct 20, 2024 12:52:25 GMT -5
I don’t know. There are clearly uncertainties (how many defectors, on which sides of the aisle, etc). But looking at Nevada’s day 1 EV, In 2020, Dems lead by 40,000 votes. 2024, it’s more like a couple thousand.
Feel like the next week should be a little more revealing with the EV.
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Ass Dan
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Post by Ass Dan on Oct 20, 2024 13:00:28 GMT -5
If most of the Haley primary voters were indeed democrats wouldn’t EV party registration overstate Republican EVs?
Even if they weren’t, that also suggests there’s a good number of persuadable republicans still out there.
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solidsnake
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Post by solidsnake on Oct 20, 2024 13:04:16 GMT -5
538 has Trump at 52% chance now, for the first time since Harris was nominee.
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Mr. Dingle Foot
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Post by Mr. Dingle Foot on Oct 20, 2024 13:20:50 GMT -5
I am curious how the new lawsuits against overseas voters turns out in PA, NC, and MI (Overseas and military voting is challenged by Republicans www.npr.org/2024/10/20/nx-s1-5150095/overseas-voters-military-lawsuit-pennsylvania-republican). We do a lot of registration drives here and are regularly in contact with dual citizens, esp. who have never been in the states or fear registering to vote because they dont pay taxes. I expect non-military, overseas voters will surpass 2020 totals and can have a huge impact in swing states. But if any of these lawsuits win, I fear how much participation will drop. |
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Percussionist Foster Grant
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Post by Percussionist Foster Grant on Oct 20, 2024 13:33:36 GMT -5
Did 538 do anything for the supposed Red Wave that never came? Any of those? Because I imagine, if they had, they'd be left looking pretty stupid/wrong. I don't buy into any of that stuff, Musk and "secret billionaires" dumping tons of money (and even impacting fuckin' betting odds) shows how easy it is to influence those numbers. The folks Musk paid to outsource a lot of the Trump ground game in certain states are being investigated for padding the books of doors knocked/numbers called. Even the people Musk's paying are grifters collecting a check lol. |
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smashedbox
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Post by smashedbox on Oct 20, 2024 13:35:45 GMT -5
Nate Silver is a Peter Thiel shill now
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Aaron
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Post by Aaron on Oct 20, 2024 13:40:08 GMT -5
I think a lot of forecasters have changed their methodology to some extent because of 2016, 2020, and 2022.
But that’s also part of the problem since 2016 - Are they over or under-compensating, and if so, who’s that going to impact most?
It obviously feels like polling isn’t the best prognosticator, so I’m not paying a ton of attention to it, and if I am, it’s state polls because national polls are pretty irrelevant when we have an EC.
I’m mostly just watching EV numbers.
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Percussionist Foster Grant
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Post by Percussionist Foster Grant on Oct 20, 2024 14:39:01 GMT -5
Dude brought Antonio Brown out after talking about Arnold Palmer's cock. The rally agendas are AI generated at random at this point.
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Ass Dan
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Post by Ass Dan on Oct 20, 2024 14:41:56 GMT -5
Silver is no longer with 538 and at the very least the podcast episodes are much more listenable for it.
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Aaron
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Post by Aaron on Oct 20, 2024 14:47:47 GMT -5
That. But, yeah, 538 still has the race at 48/46 Harris, but that’s also national and well within the moe
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solidsnake
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Post by solidsnake on Oct 20, 2024 14:52:11 GMT -5
Silver is no longer with 538 and at the very least the podcast episodes are much more listenable for it. Silver took his methodology with him, so 538 had to be built from scratch. |
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solidsnake
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Post by solidsnake on Oct 20, 2024 14:53:32 GMT -5
That. But, yeah, 538 still has the race at 48/46 Harris, but that’s also national and well within the moe Harris 2% nationally means Trump has an electoral college edge. |
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Aaron
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Post by Aaron on Oct 20, 2024 14:59:31 GMT -5
Probably the case
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boundforgloryhole
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Still on 56k dial up
My tummy sticks out more than my dickie do
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Post by boundforgloryhole on Oct 20, 2024 15:56:20 GMT -5
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johnny two cool
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Post by johnny two cool on Oct 20, 2024 16:01:59 GMT -5
It’d be so tight if Trump won and put a moratorium on refugee status in the US because imagine how owned the libs would be. They would have no choice but to endorse all of my favorite policies like eliminating private health insurance so they could get my vote.
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