Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2023 12:03:59 GMT -5
Dumps like a trump what what
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coconut al
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Post by coconut al on Nov 8, 2023 12:04:49 GMT -5
If the same shit is going to happen under Biden (roe v wade, border wall, genocide) then what's the difference? labor.
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Percussionist Foster Grant
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Post by Percussionist Foster Grant on Nov 8, 2023 12:14:09 GMT -5
Feels like people (IE Republicans) are taking some of this exit polling way too seriously. It's gonna be tight and I don't see how Trump has the numbers. Are we saying he's somehow GAINED voters since staging a coup and getting indicted four times? His base was gonna vote for him regardless of that shit, so we're saying people are jumping ship from Biden/independents to go all in on a possible felon? Not seeing it. The GOP basically has to count on troll votes (4chan types who vote Trump for the lulz/chaos of it) and wishy-washy independents to win in 2024. The issue is that Biden's popularity among Democrats is slipping. I believe the New York Times poll that came out last week or the week before had his support among Democrats in the high 70's, which is really bad. Every election is a turn out election now and if you're unable to turn out 90%+ of your base, it puts you in a really precarious position. Trump's (if the nominee) base is rock solid and will turn out in states that were close last time. Biden really can't afford to not turn out voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, etc. I definitely get that, but I think most people learned with the abortion issue after repealing Roe v Wade and not showing up to the polls in 2016 that turnout's no longer a given. I feel like we'll have "historic turnout" talk each election from here on out until the GOP quit trying to strip people of their fundamental rights while straight gaslighting people for drawing attention to it. It's honestly kinda funny because they're just further mobilizing the "wrong" people to vote against their insane political whims. I don't necessarily buy the "Trump visibility" angle I've been hearing about these past several weeks. I don't think it's an issue of visibility anymore as much as it's an issue of outrage fatigue. There's nothing Trump can say/do that's going to shock or horrify anybody anymore, and this is exactly what he's hoped for while he's been slowly chipping away at our expectations of him for nearly a decade. Either way, it obviously spells trouble for Dems. Israel/Palestine is fresh in our minds just like the pandemic was for Trump in 2020. Biden's got a year to steer public apinion in his favor.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2023 12:23:13 GMT -5
The issue is that Biden's popularity among Democrats is slipping. I believe the New York Times poll that came out last week or the week before had his support among Democrats in the high 70's, which is really bad. Every election is a turn out election now and if you're unable to turn out 90%+ of your base, it puts you in a really precarious position. Trump's (if the nominee) base is rock solid and will turn out in states that were close last time. Biden really can't afford to not turn out voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, etc. I definitely get that, but I think most people learned with the abortion issue after repealing Roe v Wade and not showing up to the polls in 2016 that turnout's no longer a given. I feel like we'll have "historic turnout" talk each election from here on out until the GOP quit trying to strip people of their fundamental rights while straight gaslighting people for drawing attention to it. It's honestly kinda funny because they're just further mobilizing the "wrong" people to vote against their insane political whims. I don't necessarily buy the "Trump visibility" angle I've been hearing about these past several weeks. I don't think it's an issue of visibility anymore as much as it's an issue of outrage fatigue. There's nothing Trump can say/do that's going to shock or horrify anybody anymore, and this is exactly what he's hoped for while he's been slowly chipping away at our expectations of him for nearly a decade. Either way, it obviously spells trouble for Dems. Israel/Palestine is fresh in our minds just like the pandemic was for Trump in 2020. Biden's got a year to steer public apinion in his favor. I can only speak for the party I work for but hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent each election cycle since 2016 to juice base turnout. You cannot afford to piss off your base because independent voters historically lean more conservative than liberal. If Biden enters Election Day with anything less than 90% of Democratic voters supporting him, he's probably cooked. The only good thing is that since 2020, it seems that his effect on down ballot races is minimal at best. Honestly, right now, my prediction is that Biden loses to whoever the Republican nominee is but Democrats keep the Senate (pending whether or not Manchin runs) and retakes the House. Ohio last night is good news for Sherrod Brown and Jon Tester has the popularity and ability (plus a potentially weak general candidate).
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Frederik
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Post by Frederik on Nov 8, 2023 12:36:50 GMT -5
I still stand by my "Nikki Haley will be the first woman president" prediction, especially if Trump croaks or goes to prison.
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Perm’d by God
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Post by Perm’d by God on Nov 8, 2023 12:48:35 GMT -5
If the same shit is going to happen under Biden (roe v wade, border wall, genocide) then what's the difference? Republicans are, at this point, genuinely incompetent. Part of what the federal govt does is resource allocation. Whether it’s intentional or just useful idiocy, a lot of Republican politicians are making it more expensive and time-consuming to get anything done. Republicans think the government ought to work like some sort of outlandish idealized Jeffersonian 19th century bullshit
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coconut al
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Post by coconut al on Nov 8, 2023 12:56:16 GMT -5
Ok here's a revision of my previous post
I'm only voting sincerely for local and state level ballots and writing in Kanye for president if it's between supporting genocide or supporting genocide (trump's version)
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Perm’d by God
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Post by Perm’d by God on Nov 8, 2023 13:00:49 GMT -5
Well, House GOP advanced an amendment to cut the Secretary of Transportation’s celery to $1.
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Porch Honky
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Post by Porch Honky on Nov 8, 2023 13:01:25 GMT -5
If the same shit is going to happen under Biden (roe v wade, border wall, genocide) then what's the difference? Republicans are, at this point, genuinely incompetent. Part of what the federal govt does is resource allocation. Whether it’s intentional or just useful idiocy, a lot of Republican politicians are making it more expensive and time-consuming to get anything done. Republicans think the government ought to work like some sort of outlandish idealized Jeffersonian 19th century bullshitYou're giving their lead brains more credit than they deserve here.
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2006 Gucci Mane
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Post by 2006 Gucci Mane on Nov 8, 2023 13:02:07 GMT -5
It's kind of terrifying to think how Trump would handle the current situation tbh.
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killedbyboard
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Post by killedbyboard on Nov 8, 2023 13:07:03 GMT -5
So I listen to Pod Save America occasionally solely for their political analysis, because those dudes are good at aggregating polling data and have been pretty dead on when it comes to recent elections and what various polls mean etc. And they were going through the recent polls that show Trump beating Biden across the board, but losing pretty handily to a "generic Democrat." What that says is a couple of things; first, Democrats/Independents are not fans of Joe Biden primarily because the economy sucks and because he's old, with the latter being a huge concern for people, and second because we're still a year out and the threat of Trump hasn't become real for people yet.
You'll remember Biden was like way low during the primary, but support for him congealed in a big way as it got closer to the election because the threat of Trump was so pronounced for people. I'm more worried about some of the polling from the closest battleground states that would suggest lower turnout among the cadre of people who were voting for Biden based on name ID and general good will, changing their tune now that they've had four years of him, and either staying home or voting third party.
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jimmyspudboy
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nice
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Post by jimmyspudboy on Nov 8, 2023 13:08:03 GMT -5
Probably drop some slurs.
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Porch Honky
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Post by Porch Honky on Nov 8, 2023 13:20:20 GMT -5
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Hungry Like The Wolf
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Who are you to doubt El Dandy?
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Post by Hungry Like The Wolf on Nov 8, 2023 13:36:25 GMT -5
It's time for Biden to pony up the other half of the money he promised when running last time. Cut the checks mfer
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Percussionist Foster Grant
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Post by Percussionist Foster Grant on Nov 8, 2023 14:06:52 GMT -5
I remember the big thing people were saying in 2019-20 being "I mean, do you see ANYBODY with a Biden sign or bumper sticker?" That question was usually asked by Republicans, who conveniently glossed over the fact that Democrat voters (traditionally) don't turn nominees into infallible strong men with their heads photoshopped onto Rambo and shit. There's way more loud-mouthing about "their guy" coming from the GOP, frankly. That's why I feel like it's always going to be tough to get a proper read on where the country is leaning. Until they get an adequate Biden replacement, of course (not holding my breath).
Now, turning nominees into cultural icons and heroes like Obama "Change"/"Hope" and the whole Bernie thing? Democrats are GREAT at doing that.
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theonefreeman
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Post by theonefreeman on Nov 8, 2023 14:28:29 GMT -5
2016 and the complete stacking of the Supreme Court done by Trump should be enough of a lesson to show anyone that, in reality, harm-reduction voting is all that we have sometimes, and that things can get worse than they are. Voting isn't supposed to be an extension of your ego; it's a civic duty. Biden is a fuck. How he's handling Israel/Palestine and how he's managed his presidency in general drives me fucking crazy. How the Democrats are so ineffectual at governing, even when they have full control of everything, drives me crazy. I will still vote for him and them next year though because things can, and will, be worse under the alternative.
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Post by 𝕄𝔼👁𝕎𝔽𝕌ℕℂ𝕋𝕀👁ℕ on Nov 8, 2023 14:30:40 GMT -5
i can no longer nut with confidence after the results of 2016. i used to blow loads with reckless abandon, but now? not in this country. maybe in ohio now though?
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tandoori jones
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lake dues
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Post by tandoori jones on Nov 8, 2023 14:31:51 GMT -5
I still stand by my "Nikki Haley will be the first woman president" prediction, especially if Trump croaks or goes to prison. this is a wild take
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Frederik
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Post by Frederik on Nov 8, 2023 14:36:44 GMT -5
I still stand by my "Nikki Haley will be the first woman president" prediction, especially if Trump croaks or goes to prison. this is a wild take Sure as shit won't be Kamala Harris.
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tandoori jones
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lake dues
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Post by tandoori jones on Nov 8, 2023 14:37:52 GMT -5
Sure as shit won't be Kamala Harris. it won’t. but if you think most republican men will vote for a woman, i’ve got a bridge to sell you
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codync
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Post by codync on Nov 8, 2023 14:41:22 GMT -5
do you think the calculus would change if she dumped em out during a debate?
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Porch Honky
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Post by Porch Honky on Nov 8, 2023 14:42:14 GMT -5
Who's Nailin Palin?
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Ass Dan
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Post by Ass Dan on Nov 8, 2023 14:48:20 GMT -5
The first woman president will definitely be a Republican. Haley needs Trump to die or something for it to be her.
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coconut al
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Post by coconut al on Nov 8, 2023 14:50:21 GMT -5
Sure as shit won't be Kamala Harris. it won’t. but if you think most republican men will vote for a woman, i’ve got a bridge to sell you if things continue to pick up for her, she won't need them.
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Frederik
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Post by Frederik on Nov 8, 2023 14:53:45 GMT -5
Sure as shit won't be Kamala Harris. it won’t. but if you think most republican men will vote for a woman, i’ve got a bridge to sell you If Trump dies tomorrow she becomes the GOP front runner because people figured out that DeSantis is nothing but a sentient potato.
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tandoori jones
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lake dues
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Post by tandoori jones on Nov 8, 2023 14:55:50 GMT -5
it won’t. but if you think most republican men will vote for a woman, i’ve got a bridge to sell you if things continue to pick up for her, she won't need them. yes she will? wtf
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Percussionist Foster Grant
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Post by Percussionist Foster Grant on Nov 8, 2023 14:56:07 GMT -5
What if Kamala Harris had nudes leak that are more explicit than Hope Solo's? Does this hurt or help the dems in 2024?
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Perm’d by God
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Post by Perm’d by God on Nov 8, 2023 15:02:43 GMT -5
Chris Christie needs to just lean in to being a fat dude
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coconut al
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Post by coconut al on Nov 8, 2023 15:05:08 GMT -5
Can somebody else explain what's going on to the simpleton? I'm driving
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ITID
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Post by ITID on Nov 8, 2023 15:12:45 GMT -5
What if Kamala Harris had nudes leak that are more explicit than Hope Solo's? Does this hurt or help the dems in 2024? You either already jerkoff to the deep fakes or you don't care
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