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Post by Thin Lizzy Gulag Graduate on Sept 18, 2024 12:40:25 GMT -5
Is it really a guarantee that Israel gets crushed in a regional war? The last time their neighbors tried that it didn't last long and Israel claimed a lot of territory. Plus they're a nuclear power. The only people capable of stopping Netenyahu and the IDF are the Israeli people. In the short term? No, they won’t get crushed, especially in a conventional symmetrical conflict with their regional adversaries. But in a protracted, a-symmetrical conflict like the GWOT? Yeah, they’ll absolutely end up losing even if it’s not a normal loss, like of territory. Guerrilla warfare is bar none the most difficult to engage with, *especially* when there is a strong ideological base for the guerrilla fighters. Historically guerrilla forces are almost undefeatable as long as they have decent numbers and some level of logistical backing, but even when they don’t, like the FARC, they can still fight a protracted conflict for years or decades. For Israel to win a regional conflict, by any conventional metric, would require the support of western boots on the ground and the near complete destruction of the opponent nations and their population….which isn’t possible. Just as they’re not winning the war against Hamas, because while they may be killing many Hamas fighters, they’re only inspiring another generation of resistance fighters and have essentially guaranteed themselves a bloody conflict for another decade minimum. The Arab world is extremely adept at insurgency, they have strong moral and ideological reasons to fight back, and Israel has sealed their fate by enraging them. There may be luls and ceasefires from time to time but they’ve entered themselves into a war that will continue to send Israeli soldiers and civilians 6’ under until the state of Israel ceases to exist in the region. Unless they manage to nuke every last person in the region without causing western, European, and asian countries to crush them.
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throwdemgunz
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Post by throwdemgunz on Sept 18, 2024 13:25:16 GMT -5
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solidsnake
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Post by solidsnake on Sept 18, 2024 13:30:53 GMT -5
Don’t they run a pretty competent operation? I assume they’ve spent the interim getting better. Unless they get nuked, which would absolutely not work out for whoever did it, seems they’re pretty good at taking on folks.
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Ass Dan
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Post by Ass Dan on Sept 18, 2024 13:36:55 GMT -5
Who is actually good at guerilla warfare against an indigenous population? Is there a single story of any army not leaving with their tail between their legs?
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Post by Thin Lizzy Gulag Graduate on Sept 18, 2024 13:43:57 GMT -5
Don’t they run a pretty competent operation? I assume they’ve spent the interim getting better. Unless they get nuked, which would absolutely not work out for whoever did it, seems they’re pretty good at taking on folks. Hezbollah? They’re definitely a fairly competent, organized, and well supplied organization. That said, the modern battlefield is ruled by digital, aerial ISR(intel/surveillance/recon), and artillery, both of which Israel has the cutting edge of. It’s not 2006 anymore, and any conventional army vs army conflict is likely to be decided by whose got more artillery and whose got better ISR. It’s why we’re seeing Russia continue to slowly steamroll Ukraine. They have limitless ISR assets and artillery shells, and unless they run out of both, or Ukraine gets supplied a sufficient amount of both, the Russian lines will continue to slowly creep forward. But hezbollah isn’t stupid, they know they can’t fight the IDF fair and square, and they’d undoubtedly take up guerrilla tactics, which the the IDF simply can’t defeat especially once the IDF starts killing civilians and radicalizing people to take up arms against them.
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Post by Thin Lizzy Gulag Graduate on Sept 18, 2024 13:44:53 GMT -5
Who is actually good at guerilla warfare against an indigenous population? Is there a single story of any army not leaving with their tail between their legs? Logically there must be some, but not a single one comes to mind off hand
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2006 Gucci Mane
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Post by 2006 Gucci Mane on Sept 18, 2024 13:45:17 GMT -5
Is it really a guarantee that Israel gets crushed in a regional war? The last time their neighbors tried that it didn't last long and Israel claimed a lot of territory. Plus they're a nuclear power. The only people capable of stopping Netenyahu and the IDF are the Israeli people. certainly not guaranteed, and crushed was probably hyperbolic. would likely depend on what all outside parties end up getting involved. also difficult to see how it would actually improve things for the state of israel or anyone really. the last sentence just makes it feel even more bleak tbh China, Russia will not get involved since they are economic partners with Israel. Russia sells its refined oil to Israel and Israel sells weapons to Russia. China buys its surveillance gear and mil-tech from Israel. No one is coming to the rescue. Palestinians are not wanted in any neighboring country. It's fucked.
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throwdemgunz
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Post by throwdemgunz on Sept 18, 2024 13:58:41 GMT -5
It’s borderline impossible to run a successful counter insurgency unless you are willing to commit extreme violence and displacement (eg the US and Native American Tribes) or throw massive resources towards countering the causes of insurgency (like the US did during the Iraq surge which did actually create a period of relative stability temporarily).
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throwdemgunz
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Post by throwdemgunz on Sept 18, 2024 14:05:38 GMT -5
certainly not guaranteed, and crushed was probably hyperbolic. would likely depend on what all outside parties end up getting involved. also difficult to see how it would actually improve things for the state of israel or anyone really. the last sentence just makes it feel even more bleak tbh China, Russia will not get involved since they are economic partners with Israel. Russia sells its refined oil to Israel and Israel sells weapons to Russia. China buys its surveillance gear and mil-tech from Israel. No one is coming to the rescue. Palestinians are not wanted in any neighboring country. It's fucked. Even for Iran and Hezbollah’s bluster they won’t commit to a war unless they think it threatens their own survival, definitely not for the sake of Palestinians. It’s politically prudent to them to make a show of standing up for them but yes no one is coming to the rescue. It’s why Israel targets unifying and moderate figures who could serve as effective leaders for the Palestinians
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Sorley Boy
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Post by Sorley Boy on Sept 18, 2024 14:43:38 GMT -5
Don’t they run a pretty competent operation? I assume they’ve spent the interim getting better. Unless they get nuked, which would absolutely not work out for whoever did it, seems they’re pretty good at taking on folks. Hezbollah? They’re definitely a fairly competent, organized, and well supplied organization. That said, the modern battlefield is ruled by digital, aerial ISR(intel/surveillance/recon), and artillery, both of which Israel has the cutting edge of. It’s not 2006 anymore, and any conventional army vs army conflict is likely to be decided by whose got more artillery and whose got better ISR. It’s why we’re seeing Russia continue to slowly steamroll Ukraine. They have limitless ISR assets and artillery shells, and unless they run out of both, or Ukraine gets supplied a sufficient amount of both, the Russian lines will continue to slowly creep forward. But hezbollah isn’t stupid, they know they can’t fight the IDF fair and square, and they’d undoubtedly take up guerrilla tactics, which the the IDF simply can’t defeat especially once the IDF starts killing civilians and radicalizing people to take up arms against them. The lines might be creeping forward, but I would argue Ukraine is probably the best recent example of a supposed modern power being humiliated by an effective insurgency. Nobody thinks Russia will achieve anything close to the aims it had at the beginning of the war, and they're in a far more dangerous and isolated international position than they were in January 2022. Putin is weaker, NATO and China know they can steamroll Russia without getting out of 2nd gear if they have to and the only recourse Russia has is to nuclear weapons.
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Sorley Boy
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Post by Sorley Boy on Sept 18, 2024 14:53:41 GMT -5
January 2022: Russia is generally considered a superpower and the 2nd or 3rd most powerful military in the world.
Fall 2024: Russia is essentially a client state of China, Finland and Sweden are part of NATO, Ukraine occupies Russian territory, sites throughout Russia are hit by Ukrainian weapons. In response Russia orders Teddy Boy Greg to the front lines.
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tomservo
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Post by tomservo on Sept 18, 2024 16:08:06 GMT -5
lmao
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Post by Reasonablepizza518 on Sept 18, 2024 16:17:31 GMT -5
Now you're telling me the Teamsters are racist? I won't believe it.
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tomservo
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Post by tomservo on Sept 18, 2024 16:17:39 GMT -5
We’re devaluing trades again we have to make college the only viable path to economic stability
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ITID
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Post by ITID on Sept 18, 2024 16:21:50 GMT -5
Shout out to the 3 guys that showed up and said cornel west
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Cucker Tarlson
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FUGG
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Post by Cucker Tarlson on Sept 18, 2024 16:24:13 GMT -5
Fucking legends
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Magnum P.P.
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I bleed cum
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Post by Magnum P.P. on Sept 18, 2024 16:46:41 GMT -5
hearing the way some guys talk about politics on job sites i feel like a lot of them just go along with whatever is perceived as being more masculine (somehow this is trump) so no one thinks that theyre gay
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Ass Dan
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Post by Ass Dan on Sept 18, 2024 16:49:07 GMT -5
A couple months ago at the bar a guy who said he was a Teamster said “the democrats lost me when they forgot that boys have penises and girls have vaginas”. Self driving trucks can't come soon enough.
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ITID
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Post by ITID on Sept 18, 2024 16:50:00 GMT -5
hearing the way some guys talk about politics on job sites i feel like a lot of them just go along with whatever is perceived as being more masculine (somehow this is trump) so no one thinks that theyre gay You talk to them about how gay that makes them?
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Magnum P.P.
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Post by Magnum P.P. on Sept 18, 2024 16:50:45 GMT -5
A couple months ago at the bar a guy who said he was a Teamster said “the democrats lost me when they forgot that boys have penises and girls have vaginas”. Self driving trucks can't come soon enough. most of these guys would not actually care about this at all if it didnt mean other men might think theyre gay
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Magnum P.P.
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I bleed cum
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Post by Magnum P.P. on Sept 18, 2024 16:53:07 GMT -5
hearing the way some guys talk about politics on job sites i feel like a lot of them just go along with whatever is perceived as being more masculine (somehow this is trump) so no one thinks that theyre gay You talk to them about how gay that makes them? i have given up on this. if only they would realize that building things with other men is actually kinda gay if you think about it.
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Perm’d by God
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Post by Perm’d by God on Sept 18, 2024 16:55:36 GMT -5
I assume all men who "work with their hands" are repressed homosexuals
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tomservo
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Post by tomservo on Sept 18, 2024 16:59:41 GMT -5
Real men make spreadsheets
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tomservo
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Post by tomservo on Sept 18, 2024 17:30:33 GMT -5
good for her rural swine in these states need internet access taken away not expanded
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Perm’d by God
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Post by Perm’d by God on Sept 18, 2024 17:39:13 GMT -5
THE FUNDS ARE JUST NOW BEING DISPERSED IN PART BECAUSE OF DELIBERATE GOP OBSTRUCTION
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theywalkedinline
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Post by theywalkedinline on Sept 18, 2024 17:55:44 GMT -5
good for her rural swine in these states need internet access taken away not expanded They’re just gonna use it for porn and posting conspiracies on Facebook. Unlike myself who uses it for posting conspiracies on board and trolling JJ.
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lalanointed
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Post by lalanointed on Sept 18, 2024 18:09:06 GMT -5
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2006 Gucci Mane
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Post by 2006 Gucci Mane on Sept 18, 2024 18:52:52 GMT -5
It is the NYP. It's a comically stupid newspaper.
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Percussionist Foster Grant
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Post by Percussionist Foster Grant on Sept 18, 2024 18:57:06 GMT -5
Real men make spreadsheets
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cruststache
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Post by cruststache on Sept 18, 2024 18:59:13 GMT -5
Hezbollah? They’re definitely a fairly competent, organized, and well supplied organization. That said, the modern battlefield is ruled by digital, aerial ISR(intel/surveillance/recon), and artillery, both of which Israel has the cutting edge of. It’s not 2006 anymore, and any conventional army vs army conflict is likely to be decided by whose got more artillery and whose got better ISR. It’s why we’re seeing Russia continue to slowly steamroll Ukraine. They have limitless ISR assets and artillery shells, and unless they run out of both, or Ukraine gets supplied a sufficient amount of both, the Russian lines will continue to slowly creep forward. But hezbollah isn’t stupid, they know they can’t fight the IDF fair and square, and they’d undoubtedly take up guerrilla tactics, which the the IDF simply can’t defeat especially once the IDF starts killing civilians and radicalizing people to take up arms against them. The lines might be creeping forward, but I would argue Ukraine is probably the best recent example of a supposed modern power being humiliated by an effective insurgency. Nobody thinks Russia will achieve anything close to the aims it had at the beginning of the war, and they're in a far more dangerous and isolated international position than they were in January 2022. Putin is weaker, NATO and China know they can steamroll Russia without getting out of 2nd gear if they have to and the only recourse Russia has is to nuclear weapons. you're dumb, Russia hasn't really gone all in on war. At same time you have what 145 billion in us arms, special forces on the ground, and all we have to show is what 500kia uktranians, ukraine with less political parties, suspended elections. Also when did punks become fans of nato? Nato should have been displayed after wall fell. Nato is nothing more than other wars, a washing of our tax dollars to military complex, and regime change.
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